The Deed is done. NaMo was finally announced as the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Prime Ministerial candidate on Friday the 13th. That announcement should have ended the speculation and the behind-the-scenes-intrigues and what have you, but it really did not.
What had actually happened was
that the Tallest Leader a.k.a. Lal Krishna Advani was a strong dissenter and
refused to change his mind from a few months back when NaMo was appointed the
head of the campaign committee. LKA seems to have raised quite the same issues
as last time – that Modi is a polarizing presence and that the BJP would be
better off either postponing his anointment as the Prime Ministerial candidate
or projecting another leader altogether.
When LKA had voiced dissent the
last time around; he was, in turns, placated and coerced into going along. This time Speaking Head after
Speaking Head of the BJP appeared on National TV and spoke of their respect for
him but went on to add, sadly, that he is out of tune with the aspirations of
the cadres and the Indian masses. The aspiration obviously is to see NaMo as
the Prime Minister.
A week ago LKA certainly looked
like a petulant patriarch who was getting increasingly isolated within his own
party and who, for all intents and purposes, was talking nonsense by arguing
that the BJP would be better off without NaMo at the helm of affairs.
Today the thinking is that LKA is
resigned to the fact that NaMo is the BJP’s PM candidate and that there is
nothing he can do now to change the situation. This ‘realization’ probably
explains the praise for NaMo’s rural electrification record a couple of days
back.
But why on earth was LKA
objecting to NaMo? Especially when according to the BJP Talking Heads the
entire rank and file of the party was solidly behind NaMo and that they sensed
a wave for NaMo across the country. Is it because the Tallest Leader still
harbours Prime Ministerial ambitions himself? Or is there solid ground for him
to object? Are LKA’s fears as trivial as
is being made out to be by the NaMo supporters? Or are they very valid points
that are just being swept under the carpet by the top brass of the BJP?
This Blog, over the next few
weeks, will try to analyze if there is merit in LKA’s argument. This is not a
partisan blog, neither of us is either a fanatical supporter of NaMo or a rabid
opponent. This is merely an attempt to cut through the noise and see if it is
truly possible for the BJP under NaMo to win at the hustings in 2014.
Briefly, a political party needs
273 to come to power at the Centre. Will the BJP be able to achieve that
magical number on it own? Highly unlikely that the BJP can get there on its
own. In fact it is almost impossible that anyone within the BJP thinks they
will be able to come to power at the Centre on their own. That means that the BJP needs the
NDA to come to power. As of now, the components of the NDA seem to be the SS
and the SAD. Who are the others? There do not seem to be too many others at
this point in time to support them.
Let’s run through the laundry
list:
1.
The Communists ---- hahahaha
2.
DMK --- NO
3.
AIADMK – probably
4.
JD(S) - UNLIKELY
5.
TDP – Unlikely
6.
YRS Congress –No?
7.
NCP – NO
8.
BJD – UNLIKELY
9.
TMC – NO
10.
JD (U) – NO
11.
National Conference – NO
12.
The Jharkhand Groups – Probably
Given this scenario who are the allies who are going to bring them the
seats that will bring them to power? Do they need allies or can they do with
political parties who will provide them outside support post elections? Will
these parties come on board with NaMo at the helm, after all they have their
own political compulsions?
All of these questions and the answers to them are crucial for the BJP
to come to power. Could this be the reason LKA had a problem with NaMo and not
out of spite or thwarted ambition?
This is precisely what we plan to
explore in great detail along with a state wise break-up of the seats that the
BJP/NDA is likely to garner in the 2014 elections.
With Sameer Nair
With Sameer Nair
No comments:
Post a Comment